In July 2025,China’s refineries increased processing rates but maintained a crude oil surplus of 530,000 barrels per day(bpd),driven by robust imports and domestic production.This surplus,down from 1.42 million bpd in June,reflects a strategic approach to managing oil inventories,according to calculations based on official data released on August 15,2025.
Refiners processed 14.85 million bpd of crude in July,a 8.9%rise from July 2024 but a 2%decline from June 2025,which marked the highest processing rate since September 2023.The utilization rate reached 71.84%,up 1.02 percentage points from June and 3.56 points from the previous year,indicating improved operational efficiency.
China,the world’s largest crude oil importer,received 11.11 million bpd in July,with domestic production contributing 4.27 million bpd.This resulted in a total of 15.38 million bpd available,leaving the 530,000 bpd surplus after processing.For the first seven months of 2025,the cumulative surplus averaged 980,000 bpd,with significant inventory growth since March due to higher imports and output compared to processing rates.
“The surplus provides flexibility for refiners to adjust imports based on market conditions,”said a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics.Not all surplus oil is necessarily stored,as some may be processed at facilities not included in official data.However,the trend since March shows imports exceeding domestic fuel needs,allowing stockpiling.
Market dynamics,particularly oil prices,influence import decisions.From January to May 2025,Brent crude prices fell from$82.63 per barrel to a four-year low of$58.50,encouraging higher imports.Prices later rose to$81.40 in June before settling at$65.57 in early August,potentially prompting refiners to reduce imports for late August and September deliveries.
“Refiners tend to increase imports when prices are favorable but scale back when costs rise rapidly,”the spokesperson noted.Saudi Arabia’s decision to raise official selling prices for August and September cargoes may further influence reduced purchases.However,sustained high processing rates and growing fuel exports,such as diesel and gasoline,could maintain import levels in the coming months.
The ability to draw on stockpiles offers refiners flexibility to navigate price fluctuations while meeting domestic and export demands.This strategic inventory management supports China’s energy needs and contributes to stable fuel supply chains.
