China’s PV industry posted sharp declines in upstream production and profit margins in the first half of 2025, even as domestic installations reached record highs and new export markets expanded, according to the CPIA.
The solar sector is contending with slower manufacturing growth, falling profits, and rising global competition –even as it breaks records at home and extends its global reach.
A midyear report by Wang Bohua, honorary chairman of the CPIA, showed steep year-on-year drops in core manufacturing segments. Polysilicon output fell 43.8% to 596,000 metric tons. Wafer production declined 21.4% to 316 GW. Solar cell and module output grew by 7.7% and 14.4%, respectively. Overall expansion has slowed considerably.
Prices across the supply chain have collapsed. As of early July, average prices for key products had fallen 66% to 89% from their pandemic-era peaks, dropping below historical lows and severely squeezing margins.
Domestic installations surged, however. In the first six months of 2025, China added 212.21 GW of new capacity – more than double the figure from the same period in 2024 – including a single-month record of 92.92 GW. Cumulative installed solar capacity has surpassed 1 TW, increasing solar’s share of the national energy mix as coal’s share declines.
The export outlook remains weak. Total export value for Chinese PV products dropped 26% year-on-year, marking a second consecutive decline. Wafer and module exports fell 7.5% and 2.8%, respectively. Cell exports, however, jumped 74.4% in volume and 33.1% in value due to rising overseas module manufacturing.
Exports to traditional markets such as Europe, the Middle East and South America declined. Meanwhile, shipments to 115 countries and regions increased. In 51 of those – mainly in Asia, Africa and the Americas – export growth exceeded 100%.
The sector’s financial position worsened. In the first quarter of 2025, 31 A-share listed PV companies reported a combined loss of CNY 12.58 billion ($1.73 billion), for a 274% year-on-year increase. More than 40 companies – including Jiangsu Sunshine and Akcome – have delisted, declared bankruptcy or entered restructuring since 2024.
Despite these pressures, CPIA revised its full-year outlook upward. Global PV additions are now projected at 570 GW to 630 GW, and China’s total is expected to reach 270 GW to 300 GW, backed by steady project pipelines and strong demand in provinces with market-based electricity pricing.
Policymakers are working to stabilize expectations. Seventeen provinces have issued implementation rules for distributed PV development. Some mandate self-consumption rates above 50% for commercial projects. New regulations tie existing and future projects through fixed tariffs and guaranteed offtake to secure long-term returns.
Green power targets for 2025-26 now require heavy industry, including steel and aluminum, to increase renewable electricity usage. New data centers must meet at least 80% of their electricity demand with green power.
The government is promoting new applications such as direct supply to industrial clusters, large-scale desert solar projects targeting 253 GW by 2030, and multi-use installations like solar-plus-storage, hydrogen, and zero-carbon industrial parks.
To rein in price wars, regulators have urged stronger industry self-regulation. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) pledged to crack down on unsustainable pricing, eliminate low-end capacity and raise quality standards. The effort is part of a broader strategy to steer the sector toward more stable and sustainable growth.
