According to the OPIS Solar Weekly Report released on July 22, the Chinese Module Marker (CMM), the OPIS benchmark assessment for TOPCon modules from China, rose 2.44% on the week to $0.084/W Free-On-Board (FOB) China, with indications between $0.082-0.087/W. This marks the first increase in FOB China module prices, following upstream price gains that began in the first week of July amid government intervention.
Forward prices rose across the board, tracking the firm spot market. Q3 2025 prices rose 1.22% to $0.083/W, with higher indications from $0.080-0.087/W. Prices for Q4 2025 loading cargoes climbed 1.23%.
Sources attribute the price momentum to rising upstream polysilicon and wafer costs, coupled with government signals on establishing a price floor, regulating production utilization, and promoting industry consolidation. These interventions have become key catalysts for current pricing adjustments.
However, market participants noted that these directives lack formal policy backing. A leading module manufacturer told OPIS that while cost pressures are genuine, the sustainability of price hikes remains uncertain, pending further policy clarity and downstream market responses.
Separately, market speculation has emerged around a potential reduction or removal of China’s export tax rebate, currently at 9% after a cut from 13% in December 2024. Though unconfirmed, such changes could trigger contract renegotiations. One Tier-1 producer expressed concern about managing over 20 GW in scheduled shipments for H2 2025 under this uncertainty.
U.S.: The spot price assessment for TOPConover 600 W modules DDP US remained at $0.267/W as per the July 22 report, with quotes for cargoes from Southeast Asia ($0.261/W) and India ($0.285/W) also unchanged.
The U.S. market remains subdued as it awaits the mid-August release of new safe harbor rules mandated by former President Trump. Further dampening sentiment is the looming implementation of steep reciprocal tariffs on August 1.
Adding to uncertainty is a newly filed AD/CVD petition seeking an investigation into imports from Laos, Indonesia, and India. If accepted, the probe could intensify pressure on Chinese manufacturers operating in Laos and Indonesia, prompting a potential shift toward North Africa and the Middle East.
India, however, is expected to face less scrutiny, as its suppliers have yet to gain major U.S. market share and typically price modules on par with American-made products.
This petition emerges amid broader turbulence: Trump’s recently passed legislation has reshaped clean energy tax incentives, a slowdown in installations is anticipated, and ongoing trade tensions continue to disrupt the global solar supply chain. Additional complications are expected from forthcoming “foreign entity of concern” (FEOC) restrictions in early 2026.
