Intelligence is reshaping the global automotive market, but no more than five international fossil fuel carmakers will successfully transform, according to a researcher at Tsinghua University's School of Vehicle and Mobility.

As the integration of artificial intelligence technologies with electrification deepens, the automotive industry landscape is reshaping, Li Xianjun said at a forum on April 20. He expects the phase of disruptive innovation to end by 2035 or at most 2040.

Looking back at industrial revolutions, only a few traditional enterprises were able to survive disruptive innovation, Li noted, adding that once traditional carmakers fall behind the competition due to the continuous iteration and updating of AI technologies, catching up will be almost impossible.

Automotive companies from China, the US, and Germany are likely to become the major leaders in the emerging smart EV industry, Li believes. China will leverage its complete supply chain and strong AI capabilities, the US will rely on its leading AI technologies and competitive advantages of firms like Tesla, and Germany will draw on its Industry 4.0 foundation, particularly its digitalization capabilities.

With the rapid application of smart EV technologies, Chinese automakers have quickly grown in recent years, and the market share of joint ventures，which once dominated China’s automobile market, has gradually shrunk, Li pointed out.

Thanks to their deep roots in the Chinese market, German carmakers have enhanced their AI application capabilities by deeply cooperating with domestic high-tech companies such as Huawei Technologies to increase the competitiveness of their products in the global market, Li added.   

During the transformation process, traditional fossil fuel vehicle manufacturers need to view AI as a powerful tool to improve efficiency, reduce costs, ensure quality, and optimize experiences, thus redefining the quality standards for smart EVs, according to Li.

Moreover, traditional automakers need to build a dynamic capability system that adapts to disruptive innovation, create new operational mechanisms and processes for the development of smart EVs, and establish a new organizational structure, corporate culture, and talent framework, Li explained.